Development and comparison of two models to predict survival rates of young larvae of <i>Stegobium paniceum</i> (L.) (Coleoptera: Anobiidae) under heat treated temperatures

  • F. Jian Department of Biosystems Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, R3T 5V6 Canada.
  • D. S. Jayas Department of Biosystems Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, R3T 5V6 Canada. Email: digvir_jayas@umanitoba.ca
  • P. G. Fields Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Cereal Research Centre, 195 Dafoe Road, Winnipeg, MB, R3T 2M9 Canada
  • A. Y. Abdelghany Department of Economic Entomology, Faculty of Agriculture, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt.

Abstract

Predicting mortality or survival rate of insects at heat treatment temperatures is critical for commercial heat treatment of food and storage facilities. Two models were developed to predict the survival rate of young larvae of drugstore beetle, Stegobium paniceum (L.) (Coleoptera: Anobiidae) under steady state or transient temperature condition: modified fundamental kinetic model and modified complementary log-log transformation model. Published young larvae mortalities and raw data of the temperature history, determined at different heat treatment temperatures, were used to develop these models. The models were verified and compared by using the field data collected in a medium sized mill. Both of the developed models overestimated the insect mortality in the mill when temperature was > 53°C and underestimated insect mortality when temperature was < 50°C. The lowest mean of the absolute difference between the predicted and measured insect mortality in the mill was 16.7±1.1% which was generated by using the modified complementary log-log transformation model. The possible reason of this divergence from the model is discussed.

Keywords: Stegobium paniceum (L.), Survival, Heat treatments, Modeling.
Veröffentlicht
2010-09-02