Site-specific prognosis model for the spatial distribution of Fusarium crown rot

Abstract

Site-specific application of pesticides allows to adapt the application rate to the spatial distribution of plant disease(s) in fields. For this purpose, suitable procedures for disease detection or prognosis are necessary. Therefore, a site-specific prognosis model was developed in the research project “AssSys” (Anonym, 2021) to predict the relative spatial distribution of Fusarium crown rot in winter wheat. Based on topographic data (elevation data, SAGA Wetness Index) three zones of disease risk are differentiated. From 2011–2012 and 2018–2020 the spatial distribution of Fusarium crown rot was sampled in several study fields per year for model development and evaluation. Model quality was assessed as the coincidence between sampled and predicted disease level. It ranged from 57 % to 80 % given the data source and disease risk zone. In general, the site-specific prognosis model provides an opportunity to identify zones of high and low vulnerability in agronomic fields.